:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
15/0519Z from Region 2415 (S22E14). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Sep,
17 Sep, 18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 567 km/s at 15/1324Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/0427Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/0738Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6437
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    05/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 101
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 100/100/095
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  010/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  009/012-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/25/25