:Product: 0916RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
16/1920Z from Region 2415 (S20W02). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Sep,
18 Sep, 19 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
533 km/s at 16/0553Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/1750Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 15/2151Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8045 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Sep,
18 Sep, 19 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Sep 109
Predicted   17 Sep-19 Sep 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        16 Sep 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep  017/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep-19 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25