:Product: 0923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 23 2300 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/1857Z from Region 2422 (S20E36). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Sep, 25 Sep,
26 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
574 km/s at 23/0640Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 23/1359Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 23/1559Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 531 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Sep) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 111
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep 115/120/120
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  007/008-013/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/40