:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep,
27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
502 km/s at 23/2108Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/2132Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/0331Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 615 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Sep, 26 Sep) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 107
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/105
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  013/015-013/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/10
Minor Storm           10/10/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/20