:Product: 0925RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
24/2347Z from Region 2418 (S16W77). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep,
28 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
549 km/s at 25/0050Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/0217Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1007Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 636 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (28 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Sep 120
Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 115/110/115
90 Day Mean        25 Sep 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  013/015-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/10/10
Minor Storm           10/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/20/20