:Product: 0926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/0129Z from Region 2422 (S20W03). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep,
29 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 514 km/s at
26/0032Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2347Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 26/1553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 976 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (27 Sep,
28 Sep, 29 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 120
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20