:Product: 0927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
27/1040Z from Region 2422 (S20W16). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep,
30 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 453 km/s at
27/0743Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0434Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 27/0615Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 476 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Sep 128
Predicted   28 Sep-30 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        27 Sep 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  007/007-007/007-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20