:Product: 0929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/0516Z from Region 2422 (S18W42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01
Oct, 02 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
385 km/s at 29/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Sep, 01 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Oct). Protons have a chance
of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 129
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  007/008-008/008-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/40