:Product: 1002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
02/0013Z from Region 2422 (S20W83). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (03 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (04 Oct)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (05 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
407 km/s at 02/1633Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/2302Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2136Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04
Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (05 Oct). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04
Oct, 05 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    70/65/50
Class X    25/20/15
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 107
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct 095/085/090
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  016/024-025/033-018/022

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor Storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/65/50