:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (07
Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
462 km/s at 05/2325Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 06/2051Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6928 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Oct), active to
major storm levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels
on day three (09 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 081
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  017/022-030/042-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/40
Minor Storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    75/70/60