:Product: 1010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (11 Oct) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
735 km/s at 10/0525Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0633Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0624Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 46271 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (11 Oct, 13 Oct)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 081
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct 080/085/090
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  015/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/012-013/020-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/40/30
Minor Storm           10/25/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/35
Major-severe storm    35/60/40