:Product: 1011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (12 Oct) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two
and three (13 Oct, 14 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
595 km/s at 10/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/1932Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 11/1804Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 60051 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Oct), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    01/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 085
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 085/090/090
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  013/020-013/015-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/35
Minor Storm           25/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/10
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    60/40/55