:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/1411Z from Region 2434 (S08E74). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct,
16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
617 km/s at 13/0531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0018Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1512Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10091 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (14
Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    30/30/40
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 096
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 105/110/115
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 101

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  021/030-021/030-021/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/40
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/05
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/65/65