:Product: 1019RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/1727Z from Region 2436 (N09E44). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct,
22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at
18/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 332 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels
on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 124
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  006/005-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           10/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/25