:Product: 1020RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/0404Z from Region 2437 (S20E46). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct,
23 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
406 km/s at 20/0316Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 20/1347Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/1524Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1254 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (22 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (23 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Oct 123
Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        20 Oct 102

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  009/012-007/010-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           30/25/15
Major-severe storm    30/25/15