:Product: 1021RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
21/1756Z from Region 2436 (N08E16). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct,
24 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
491 km/s at 21/1715Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 21/0937Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1133Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 658 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Oct 129
Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        21 Oct 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  007/010-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    25/15/10