:Product: 1023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct,
26 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 23/0412Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/2203Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 23/0409Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 376 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (25 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 115
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 103

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  013/020-019/024-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/20
Minor Storm           15/20/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    45/50/25