:Product: 1027RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Oct 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 27/1429Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (28 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 480 km/s at 27/1429Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/0039Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 27/2059Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 157 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (29 Oct, 30 Oct). III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Oct 110 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 104 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 007/008-010/012-009/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 25/30/35