:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/0937Z from Region 2436 (N08W74). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (29
Oct, 30 Oct, 31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 377 km/s at
28/0123Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 28/0625Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0010Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (29 Oct, 30
Oct, 31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 112
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 115/110/105
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  010/012-009/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/35
Major-severe storm    30/35/35