:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
30/2016Z from Region 2443 (N06E56). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov,
02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
402 km/s at 30/1826Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0845Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2125Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
29/2125Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 121
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20