:Product: 1031RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1752Z from Region 2443 (N07E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 31/0905Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/2116Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/2048Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov), unsettled to
severe storm levels on day two (02 Nov) and active to major storm levels
on day three (03 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           31 Oct 119
Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        31 Oct 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  008/008-036/065-033/050

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/25
Minor Storm           05/35/40
Major-severe storm    01/40/30
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/01/05
Minor Storm           30/10/10
Major-severe storm    20/90/85