:Product: 1101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
01/0027Z from Region 2443 (N07E29). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 01/0345Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0454Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0428Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (02 Nov), active to
major storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 124
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  036/065-033/050-015/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor Storm           35/40/15
Major-severe storm    40/30/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                01/05/10
Minor Storm           10/10/30
Major-severe storm    90/85/50