:Product: 1103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 03 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
03/1909Z from Region 2443 (N06E03). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (04 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 760 km/s at 03/1907Z. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 03/0659Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 03/0620Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (04 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (05 Nov, 06 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    50/45/40
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 124
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  025/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  016/021-010/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           40/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/30
Major-severe storm    70/35/30