:Product: 1104RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
04/1352Z from Region 2443 (N06W09). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Nov, 06 Nov, 07 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 770 km/s at 04/0405Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0325Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 04/0444Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4404
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (05 Nov) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
two and three (06 Nov, 07 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
Class M    65/60/60
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     15/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Nov 114
Predicted   05 Nov-07 Nov 115/110/110
90 Day Mean        04 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov  023/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov  028/041
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov  014/015-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov-07 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    55/30/25