:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/1811Z from Region 2449 (S12E72). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov,
09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
682 km/s at 06/1915Z. Total IMF reached 19 nT at 06/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 06/2047Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 21557 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (07 Nov, 08
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 115
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  016/025-014/020-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor Storm           20/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    60/50/30