:Product: 1107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
07/0021Z from Region 2448 (N05E37). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 719 km/s at 07/0257Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 06/2109Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 06/2232Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5714
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 115
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov 115/115/115
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  028/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  014/020-014/018-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/25
Minor Storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/30/30