:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
07/2321Z from Region 2449 (S12E57). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
559 km/s at 08/1645Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 07/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/1026Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4276 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (09 Nov) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 108
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 108/108/110
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 104

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  029/039
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  019/025-014/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/30/30