:Product: 1110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 10 2350 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2015

*** CORRECTION***

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/1411Z from Region 2443 (N07W95). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 766 km/s at 10/1505Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/2112Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 09/2254Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3
pfu at 10/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 19551 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 105
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 110/110/115
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  022/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  026/038
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  013/018-022/030-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/25/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/60/40