:Product: 1112RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 12 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Nov,
14 Nov, 15 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 648 km/s at
11/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 33937 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (13 Nov, 14 Nov)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Nov 104
Predicted   13 Nov-15 Nov 107/113/113
90 Day Mean        12 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov  017/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov  006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov  013/015-015/020-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/30
Minor Storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/55/40