:Product: 1114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
558 km/s at 14/0259Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2100Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2734 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Nov,
16 Nov, 17 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 106
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov 105/105/105
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20