:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov,
18 Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 424 km/s at 15/2105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 16/0447Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0449Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3129
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 106
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 104/104/102
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  007/010-019/025-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/30
Minor Storm           05/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/40