:Product: 1117RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Nov 17 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 17/1554Z from Region 2454 (N05E12). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 387 km/s at 16/2335Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 17/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2012Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (18 Nov), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (19 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Nov). III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Nov 107 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 108/108/106 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 106 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 022/030-014/020-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/10 Minor Storm 30/15/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/10/20 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 70/55/20