:Product: 1118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov,
20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
491 km/s at 18/2037Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 18/1929Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 18/1930Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 989 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 108
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 108/106/104
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  013/018-007/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/10/10
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/20/20