:Product: 1120RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
422 km/s at 20/0029Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/1956Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0715Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov,
22 Nov, 23 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Nov 111
Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 110/112/112
90 Day Mean        20 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  007/008-009/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20