:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/1324Z from Region 2454 (N13W40). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
441 km/s at 21/0139Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2107Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/2252Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 200 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov,
23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 122
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  008/008-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20