:Product: 1122RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
22/0538Z from Region 2454 (N13W53). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 388 km/s at
22/0636Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/2140Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0443Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 195 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (25 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Nov 123
Predicted   23 Nov-25 Nov 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        22 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov  005/005-005/005-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/10/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/30
Major-severe storm    15/15/40