:Product: 1124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Nov,
26 Nov, 27 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at
24/1454Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 187 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Nov, 26 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    15/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 113
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov 115/115/110
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  011/015-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/20