:Product: 1125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0827Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (26 Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 291 km/s at
24/2257Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/1843Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached 0 nT at 25/0336Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 218 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Nov,
27 Nov, 28 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Nov 109
Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov 110/110/110
90 Day Mean        25 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov  002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov-28 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20