:Product: 1127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 27 2240 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three
(28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field reached unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 342 km/s at
27/1759Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/1846Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 621 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov,
29 Nov, 30 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 099
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 099/099/099
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15