:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov,
30 Nov, 01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
359 km/s at 28/2100Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 28/1958Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/0954Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to active
levels on day two (30 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 097
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 095/095/100
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  007/008-010/012-020/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/35
Minor Storm           01/05/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/10
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    15/30/45