:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov,
01 Dec, 02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
471 km/s at 29/2100Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0500Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1754Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Nov), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 096
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 095/100/105
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 105

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  010/012-020/025-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor Storm           05/20/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    30/45/40