:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
01/0810Z from Region 2458 (N09W51). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Dec, 03 Dec)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
588 km/s at 01/1422Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1903Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/2048Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 302 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    05/05/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 095
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 095/095/090
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  009/008-006/005-007/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/15
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           35/25/30
Major-severe storm    25/10/20