:Product: 1204RSGA.txt :Issued: 2015 Dec 04 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2015 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 04/1710Z from Region 2462 (N09E57). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec, 07 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 411 km/s at 03/2340Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 04/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/1924Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1474 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (06 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (07 Dec). III. Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Dec 098 Predicted 05 Dec-07 Dec 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 04 Dec 106 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec 007/008-014/018-020/025 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/35/35 Minor Storm 05/20/20 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 20/55/55