:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
05/1521Z from Region 2463 (S12E52). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec,
07 Dec, 08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
509 km/s at 05/1827Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 05/1402Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 05/0647Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 805 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (06 Dec, 07
Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 101
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 100/100/100
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  020/030-020/025-016/020

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/55/55