:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec,
08 Dec, 09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 673 km/s at 06/1817Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 06/1119Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 06/1149Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 485
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 102
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 100/100/105
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 106

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  014/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  020/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  022/025-016/020-012/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           20/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    55/55/40