:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
10/0750Z from Region 2468 (S15E65). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Dec,
12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 711 km/s at 10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/0556Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 10/0733Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3235
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Dec) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 109
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 112/115/120
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  017/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  016/022-013/016-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor Storm           15/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    45/30/25