:Product: 1211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
11/1716Z from Region 2465 (S05E09). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Dec,
13 Dec, 14 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 702 km/s at 11/0207Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2116Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2157Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6095
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (12 Dec, 13 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 114
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec 115/115/120
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 107

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  018/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  013/016-011/012-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           35/30/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20