:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
12/1346Z from Region 2470 (N13E76). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec,
15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
720 km/s at 12/0103Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 11/2215Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/0152Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6196 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Dec, 14 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 117
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 120/125/125
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  009/010-007/008-013/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           05/01/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/20/45