:Product: 1215RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Dec,
17 Dec, 18 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 612 km/s at 15/0807Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/2104Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 14/2104Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 122
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Dec) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Dec 119
Predicted   16 Dec-18 Dec 120/120/125
90 Day Mean        15 Dec 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  015/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec  015/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  011/012-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/25
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    25/15/10