:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2015 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
16/0903Z from Region 2468 (S16W13). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Dec,
18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
654 km/s at 16/0213Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2321Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2320Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 397 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 126
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 108

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10